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8.8 Probability and Number of Ignitions

Probability is the chance that an event will happen and is expressed in terms of percent, or per 100. For example, if there is a 40 percent chance of a spot fire starting, that means that out of 100 glowing embers that fly off, 40 embers will likely start spot fires, and 60 will not. Percent is calculated by changing the percent into a fraction by dividing by 100, then multiplying by the total number of possible situations.

Example 1 - The probability of ignition is 80 percent. How many ignitions are likely to occur if 90 glowing firebrands land on receptive fuel?

Step 1. Change 80 percent to a fraction, 80/100 and then into a decimal. 80/100 = 0.80

Step 2. Multiply by the total number of situations, in this case glowing firebrands. 0.8 × 90 = 72
 

Expect 72 ignitions out of 90 glowing firebrands

NWCG Latest Announcements

The Incident Position Standards and Next Generation Position Task Book are now available for Status/Check-In Recorder (SCKN)

Date: August 27, 2024
Contact: Incident Planning Subcommittee 

NWCG is excited to announce that the NWCG Incident Position Standards for Status/Check-In Recorder, PMS 350-32, NWCG Position Task Book for Status/Check-In Recorder (SCKN), PMS 311-32, and Checking In Resources Customer Service Job Aid, J-111 are now available.

The Performance Support Package, which for SCKN includes the Incident Position Standards, Next Generation Position Task Book, and job aid were developed through the Incident Performance and Training Modernization (IPTM) effort. The Performance Support Package will support trainees, those qualified in the position, and evaluators.

References:

NWCG Status/Check-In Recorder Position Page

NWCG Incident Position Standards for Status/Check-In Recorder, PMS 350-32

NWCG Position Task Book for Status/Check-In Recorder (SCKN), PMS 311-32

Checking In Resources Customer Service Job Aid, J-111

The Next Generation Position Task Book and Incident Position Standards are now available for Safety Officer, Field (SOFF)

Date: July 26, 2024
Contact: Risk Management Committee 

NWCG is excited to announce that the NWCG Incident Position Standards for Safety Officer, Field, PMS 350-81 and NWCG Position Task Book for Safety Officer, Field (SOFF), PMS 311-81 are now available.

The Safety Officer, Field (SOFF) is responsible for monitoring operations on an incident from a risk management perspective to provide for the welfare of incident resources and the public. The new Incident Position Standards and Next Generation Position Task Book are developed through the Incident Performance and Training Modernization (IPTM) effort.

References:

NWCG Safety Officer, Field (SOFF) Position

NWCG Incident Position Standards for Safety Officer, Field, PMS 350-81

NWCG Position Task Book for Safety Officer, Field (SOFF), PMS 311-81

Updated NWCG Standards for Electronic Documentation (eDoc), PMS 277

Date: July 25, 2024
Contact: Incident Planning Subcommittee 

The Incident Planning Subcommittee has updated the NWCG Standards for Electronic Documentation (eDoc), PMS 277.

The NWCG Standards for Electronic Documentation (eDoc) establishes the standards for collection and retention of records on wildland fires. This July 2024 update will provide incident management teams the most current standards required to maintain incident records and submit them to host units at the close of an incident.

References:

NWCG Standards for Electronic Documentation (eDoc), PMS 277

eDoc Box Directory (zip file)

NWCG Off-Highway Vehicle Typing Standard Request for Comment

Date: July 24, 2024
Contact: Mobile Fire Equipment Subcommittee 

The Mobile Fire Equipment Subcommittee has released Equipment Bulletin 24-002 NWCG Off-Highway Vehicle (OHV) Typing Standard - Request for Comment. This bulletin outlines the proposed NWCG OHV typing standard, as well as the business need for establishing the standard. Comments on the proposed standard will be accepted through August 15th using the comment form linked below.

References:

ETC-EB-2024-02: NWCG Off-Highway Vehicle (OHV) Typing Standard - Request for Comment

NWCG Off-Highway Vehicle (OHV) Typing Standard Comment Form